Hamas launched its attack for several reasons.
Firstly, the actions of the far-right Israeli government, which allowed settler violence in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem, created a sense of desperation among Palestinians and led to increasing demands for a response. Simultaneously, escalating tensions in the West Bank due to these policies forced Israeli forces to shift their focus northward to protect settlements. This situation provided Hamas with both a reason and an opportunity to initiate their attack.
Secondly, Hamas felt compelled to act because of the growing Arab-Israeli normalization. In recent years, this trend reduced the importance of the Palestinian issue for Arab leaders, making them less inclined to pressure Israel on this matter. If a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal had been finalized, it could have significantly altered the dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict and further diminished the already slim chances of a two-state solution. This was a key consideration for Hamas.
Thirdly, Hamas gained confidence after repairing its relations with Iran. In recent years, the group had to reevaluate its political stance, which had previously opposed Iran and its ally, the Syrian regime, especially in the aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011.
Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, personally played a role in improving relations between Hamas and Damascus. A Hamas delegation visited Damascus in October 2022, and Ismail Haniyeh, the chief of Hamas's political bureau, traveled to Beirut in April and Tehran in June. Just last month, Nasrallah hosted Ziad al-Nakhalah, the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Saleh al-Aro, the deputy chief of Hamas's political bureau.